Survivor Canberra S2 Edgic - Episode 9

 We're at the penultimate episode! Later today the finale is going to be released so we have to determine based on the edgic how it will go. Who are our winner, runner-ups and final boots. It's on me to use the last nine episodes to deduct this. Let's see if I can pull it off and not just being overconfident and cocky!

Previously On Segment

Language choice was the most noteworthy part of this previously on segment. The voiceover says Nic tried to solidify his bond with Sophie - when they easily could've said he did. That ambiguity may be because Sophie votes him out in the finale and therefore their bond wasn't solidified. We got a soundbite from Mar that reiterated that Nic wins if he gets to the end. This isn't a new claim but it does give me doubt that Nic makes it to the end. On that note, they focused on Sophie 'battling hard through the pain' as the second place finisher. Definitely interesting because she was not portrayed positively this episode, to give her praise for her second place finish. Perhaps Sophie is the one to win the challenge that gets Nic out? This preview also gave heavy praise to Mar with barely a mention of Michael. This isn't unusual and continues the trend of Mar getting the credit over other players making similar moves.

Over The Top

Quite impressive for Johanna to get an OTTP on an episode where she had no confessionals but she pulled it off. Johanna was eliminated in the double and so her story had essentially ended from last episode even if us as the audience didn't know yet. Her final words were her only contribution to the episode but they were teary and emotionally strong enough that I felt they warranted an Over the Top Positive rating. Johanna from the start had a clear storyline of being unaware of Survivor and adapting to the season as it went along, and this episode finalised it with her betrayal from Mar and Michael. This is a fitting ending for her, as she had contributed to the big move last round and survived being a target yet again only to be taken out during a tribal scramble. Johanna ends this season as MORP. She wasn't a massive screen presence, however I'd argue she ended up with a positive tinge overall as she grew as the season continued. She will be remembered for making it deep into a game she wasn't aware of and being taken out partially for being a threat to win. 

Complex Personalities

Mel was a winner option early on for me but as the season progressed I found it increasingly less likely. It just didn't feel like the narrative was about her, she was more of a secondary character than the winner who usually gets the primary story. This came through in her edit, which had a strong start due to her advantage but fizzled out at the merge, ending up as a pre-finale boot. She received a simple CP edit this episode, no tone and the reason for her boot was that she'd be a good talker (which appears to be true). Overall I think Mel finishes as MOR. It's close between CP and MOR but I went with MOR because in comparison to the final five minus Michael she's been less of a consistent presence. I think she'll be remembered for her super idol, along with her rivalry turned last-minute alliance with Anna/Amy. 

Time to talk about our final 5! Since they all got CP this episode I put them in order from least likely to win to most. Unfortunately that means Michael goes first. Funnily enough I predicted this exact fate for Michael in episode 1, as I said he definitely could go all the way to the end but I was skeptical he could win. Eight episodes later and nothing has changed. Michael might be in the final 3 and pleading his case to the jury but his winning story is almost non-existent. He has a connection to Mar which has been present from episode 1, but it's not shown as an equal partnership à la Brad and Jeremy from last season. Michael's content is about describing others and as a number, whereas Mar's is about her own game and adds personal touches to her gameplay. Even in this episode, Michael barely got a CP and all four of his confessionals spoke about other people with low regard to his own strategu. I fear that Michael is a no-vote getter 3rd placer who is criticised for following Mar too closely, or perhaps a second placer who just has a similar story to the eventual winner. Not much else to say here, I would be incredibly surprised and disappointed if Michael won with this edit. 

For a while there I felt like Sophie was rising up to be a dark horse winner option. When merge started I considered if she was the winner who was intentionally hidden in the premiere to throw off savvy viewers. However, despite some fantastic pre-merge episodes her post-merge edit has been lackluster. It hasn't felt like Sophie's story, and she's had an unexpected negative sway in her edit too. I didn't take her disagreement with James as too much against her, but with these last two episodes both having N tone for Sophie it actually may have been more damaging to her edit than I believed. Her edit this episode was her worst, as she helped Nic out in the challenge rather than herself and got criticism from most players and even the host. Mar has been a reliable narrator this season and she called Sophie delusional for her strategy of keeping Nic in. I don't think it's impossible for Sophie to win, and maybe in a Sophie/Anna/Michael final 3 her edit has merit as the two big dogs go out just before the end, but it seems far more likely Sophie will lose to Nic or Mar (or even be taken out before final 3). One last thing to note is she hasn't won a challenge yet, and I wonder if the foreshadowing throughout the season of her winning a challenge will finally come into play at this finale. Will she win the challenge that takes out Nic? Either she does that or she doesn't succeed in her initial goals. 

We're approaching the end and I have to make tough calls here about who I truly think is winning and isn't. I've enjoyed Anna's story arc recently and think it would make a fanastic winner edit, but I have to be honest with myself and say I don't think Anna is winning. She's been consistently shown and has a strong positively toned message of not letting others control her, yet her strategic edit is lacking. I'd say we're likely seeing Anna voted out before the final 3, since I believe Nic or Mar are winning that means Michael is at the end regardless and Sophie is at the end if Mar wins. Potentially Anna is a runner up which explains her good edit in spite of her losing, the issue is edgically it doesn't make sense for her to beat Nic or Mar at the end so she'd have to be against Sophie and Michael (which isn't likely at all) to win. Her edit this episode was fine, a pretty standard episode without tone from her. It is noteworthy to hear others believe they can beat Anna at the end - that's easy foreshadowing that Anna might lose at the end but it came from Sophie and Michael who have lesser shots than Anna. Anna is a longshot to win, I'll keep her as a dark horse option though even if she's not in the contenders anymore. 

Does Nic win out. That's my main question to determine the winner. If Nic wins out to the end, he should win from everything we've been told. Almost every player has said it - if Nic is at the final tribal he will win the votes. He doesn't have any obvious jury issues, he's strong at challenges and has had a good if quiet winners edit consistently throughout the season. The issue is quite simply: is it too obvious? Is Nic winning the next two challenges and making it to the end too expected and therefore a loss of suspense? Let's say he wins the final four challenge, it seems highly likely at that point he'd win so the remainder of the finale would be straightforward. If Nic were to do that, maybe it would be softened and made less obvious by showing more negative scenes with him. Nic is my #2 contender and if he won the story would be logical, however I am putting over 70% odds on Mar being our winner instead. There's the classic storytelling trope of 'show don't tell', and with Nic we're told he's going to win, whereas with Mar we are shown why she would win instead. It is probable Nic is our fallen angel this season, just as Ben was in the previous season. Watch this space... 

Mar is the sole survivor of season 2. When you read that, doesn't that just sound right? Mar has ticked every box three times over that a winner is expected to hit in order to have a fulfilling winner edit and I believe she's going to pull it out. She's been in my top 2 from the start, and was only not my #1 because Hayley had an equally good edit that was a bit more subtle. Once it became clear Hayley was a motivational edit I then put all my chips into Mar's edit and haven't looked back. When the trio of Sophie Nic and Mar were established early on I was confident those three would all make it far into the season and unsurprisingly they all made it to the finale with varying levels of complexity. It's also worth noting how positive Mar's edit has been, we hear from almost everyone that she's social, likeable and trusted. I gave her a light positive this episode just for that, and if you think back to last season Jeremy also won with a CPP edit in a similar fashion (with Brad being a version of Michael just more of an equal partner). If Nic loses either immunity, our winner is almost certainly Mar and I'm prepared to watch it go down. 

Hope y'all are as excited as I am for this finale! Here are the charts:

I'll do one finalising post after the finale recapping the final five plus an overview of the season from an edgic perspective. I'll also be on the Backbenchers podcast too which will cover the finale and give my thoughts on the season as a whole from a viewer perspective. Until then, enjoy this finale everyone!