Survivor Canberra S2 Edgic - Episode 3

 Welcome once again to Survivor Canberra edgic! Episode three has been released so I'm back to analyse this edit. We had the shortest episode of the season thus far, which means less overall content and more emphasis on those who did receive substantial development. Who's changed this episode? Who's edit is sinking quicker than the titanic? Let's find the answer.

Previously On Segment

The 'Previously on Survivor' this time had a few interesting takes on last episode. It focused on Mel for Winyu - which makes sense but also didn't mention other key characters like Simon and James. This to me suggests their storylines may not be as important as other players on their tribe. Sophie got a confessional saying she should 'push forward and get the advantage' - which seems like easy foreshadowing that she might be the one to receive it over Michael and Johanna. On top of that, Kubbadang got a lot of recap while Winyu received very little (despite them going to tribal, they absolutely could've set up Joseph being a target or the alliances), which potentially suggests Kubbadang may contain the winner or at least more vital characters. This segment also helped confirm my theory that Nic was being protected by the editors, they called Grace 'volatile' and explained that Johanna was an option to go instead of him. These were all key points that easily could've been cut or adjusted, but instead were kept in to remind the audience about Mar's target on Johanna/Malcolm - which I expect we'll see play out sooner rather than later.

Under The Radar

How the mighty have fallen. After getting 8 confessionals in the first episode, Michael received the least content this episode and may as well have not existed narratively. His one confessional was about Grace's departure and was quite literally just ten seconds long - and he didn't receive anything else. The silver lining is he wasn't alone in this, Kubbadang as a whole were underedited this episode, but at this point his personal edit is slipping further and further away. I nearly considered invisible for this episode, under the basis that people would probably not remember anything from them. Ultimately he did speak, so he squeaked an under-the-radar, but his winner chances are incredibly low. I presume he makes merge but perhaps he doesn't make it as far as I expected, unless his edit comes alive at merge? 

Poor Banfield, I feel like everytime I come here I don't find hope in his edit. He got slightly more content than most on Kubbadang, but that's arguably a worse sign which could indicate a downfall soon considering the content was once again not really about him. It's a pretty bad sign that his very first sentence was outright wrong, stating the second Nic vote 'blindsided everyone' right after we saw Nic explain he knew it was coming. This easily could've been cut, but the editors left it in most likely just to show that not everyone knew about Johanna's vote - and Banfield took the fall for being out of the loop. His other two confessionals were about reward and Conner, both of which were expositional and beyond affirming him being a Survivor fan didn't add to his story. I still expect him to be targeted if Kubbadang ever goes back to tribal, and potentially leave or at least receive votes. Other than that, I don't know where his story is going because right now it isn't really going anywhere. 

Sophie is another UTR from Kubbadang, the third of four we have. Similar to Banfield, she spoke about the reward and Conner in her three confessionals and that was virtually all. It's not an awesome sign for her but last episode was quite strong for her regardless so I'll give her a minor pass this time. She had a positive energy in her confessionals, being grateful for Conner's arrival and the two rewards they'd won which is better in comparison to Michael's screentime being negative towards Grace. I see no reason as to why Sophie would miss the merge unless she was a shock swap boot, narratively she's set up extremely well even if her edit is quiet. I would like some better individual content from her in the coming weeks to feel more confident in her winner odds though. 

Rounding out the UTR edits, we have Malcolm. To repeat what I said about all the other UTRs this episode, his content didn't develop his story whatsoever and could've been said by anyone. His confessional was about sandwiches and winning the challenge, and otherwise he didn't get screentime. There's a strong possibility there was genuinely not much content on Kubbadang to film this round, as neither of their segments were long or strategy-focused, but there's two issues for the Malcolm/Banfield/Michaels of the world. One is that Nic/Mar still received good content regardless of the quiet tribe edit. If Nic can get three confessionals that show strategy and gameplay, why can't these three? Second is that this is not a one-off occurance, this is the same trend I've seen with all these three from episode one. We just don't hear enough about their own thoughts, and their own strategy to know what they want. For example, is Malcolm more aligned with Johanna or Mar/Nic? Does Banfield still not trust Mar because of her social game? Will Michael target Johanna next or does he have other moves in mind? We just don't know these things that we do know with complex characters like my winner contenders. Malcolm I would've said has the best long-term chances, but the recap went out of its way to point out that Mar was targetted Johanna because of him. This is a storyline that'll pay off soon, and seeing as I'm confident Sophie, Nic and Mar make merge I assume that Malcolm (or Johanna) could be in danger. 

Middle of the Road

Like Malcolm and Michael, Johanna received only one confessional. However, she made the most of her confessional and we were able to get justification from her rogue Nic vote along with confirmation from Nic that he doesn't mind much (despite what Mar says). I was looking at Johanna as potentially the next boot but her edit has impressed me since episode one, and perhaps she's getting a growth edit where she learns Survivor strategy and gameplay over the course of the season. Johanna explained she was honest with Nic and that's a goal of hers - a good motivation to add to her list. She did also get a humourous moment in the reward segment with Conner as she complimented his eyes - nothing major, just a fun character moment for her. I don't see her winning, yet I've been pleasantly surprised by her content recently and maybe I'll be surprised by her again down the line.

This was a chance for Simon to have a breakthrough episode and really level up his edit away from comic relief. That did not happen. Most players who have gone to sacrifice have had noticeable boosts in their confessional count or complexity, instead Simon faded into the background, only popping up to say he feels confident (which would be later undermined by James instantly naming him as a target for the vote). I've noticed this from episode 1, Simon feels disconnected to the Winyu narrative. He has a tenuous link to Mel, but the key characters on this tribe are definitely Hayley, Mel, Anna and James and Simon is somewhat on the periphery along with John. He's also been undermined the most out of any player this season, which is an awful sign for a potential winner. I will say, this episode did make me wonder if Simon is actually a 3rd place finisher with no votes. I don't know if his edit has the legs to go that far, but the edit has provided reasons as to why he would lose a jury vote. Dunno, time will tell on that one. 

I'm two for two! I correctly guessed Joseph was a very soon boot and I was right on just like Grace. Joseph had two incredibly underwhelming edits in a row and seeing him get extra screentime this episode sealed the deal that he was a goner. He did finally reach above a UTR rating this time, scoring a MORN edit for sharing a small amount of strategy and being included in strategy sessions, but the negativity comes from several forms. James' criticism of the challenge performance, Hayley's continued distrust towards him, Mel's belief he voted for her and John's complaints about his tarp-side stories. Overall Joseph ends the season as UTRN. I unfortunately don't think Joseph will be particularly remembered, and if he is recalled based on the show it'll most likely be him losing the challenge for his tribe and his tribes general annoyance towards him. As I said last week, quiet and undeveloped edits are continuously dropping out with no signs of any big characters leaving anytime soon. It wouldn't surprise me if Simon, Banfield, Malcolm or Johanna left next week. 

Mel wasn't super in the forefront this episode, which I don't think is outright bad. There's a general idea with edgic that well-rounded players get 'cooldown' episodes, where they're visible but not the main priority for that specific episode. Mel was technically one vote away from leaving without it being focused on, which I take as another positive sign as it implies Mel wasn't in any serious danger of going. Her confessionals weren't super in-depth, one was about James and two others were about Joseph, but she was included in enough group scenes and was complex enough to get a solid MOR rating. Not much more to add for her, she's consistently important without standing out overtly - which I imagine will continue into next episode.  

Over The Top

I wasn't sure if we'd get an over-the-top-positive edit but here we are! There's no denying how emotionally charged Hayley's arc was, going from seemingly in control with a lot of power to her position being in question due to her injury. Initially her camera time began with her speaking about her job - which is a typical Survivor winner tool to characterise a player. I didn't read too much into John's confessional of Hayley, as much as the preview last week wanted it to appear as though Hayley was going to be targetted the confessional was actually quite complimentary of her social skills, and was followed by Mel declaring she does like Hayley to James. The Anna/Hayley duo looks poised to make an impact on the season (and if one were to go, I'd suspect Anna first), and yet again we hear Hayley talk about other players in her own terms. She spoke about James, but unlike others who just comment on him, she related James' target level to her own game by acknowledging he'll be seen as a bigger target than her. Then, she received a change in tone as her ankle injury was given its own section. This was straight OTTP, she was portrayed as courageous and heartfelt, with her tribemates supporting her and standing by her. As for her winner odds, I'm leaving her at #1 for now. There's a reasonable possibility she's more of an inspiration figure on the season rather than the outright victor, but I'll need some more episodes before I can drop her down for that. Additionally I want to point out that for the second time, Hayley was named as someone the eliminated player wanted to see win - surely that's not a coincidence right?    

Complex Personalities

Once again James beat the same story beats of last two episodes. He's the cocky leader of the tribe, the figurehead of the strategy and gameplay. It's extremely tough to know exactly how he'll do because that really is just him presented as he is, unless you gave him almost no content it'd be difficult to create an edit otherwise. I don't believe he'll be 'overthrown' anytime soon, his edit is more developed than Astyn or Kegan from last season, but this is still a very atypical winners edit and still more negative than most. I settled for a mixed tone CP, which I suspect will be a common rating for James in the future. The reason why I keep him in the winner contenders (and why I moved him up this week) is he's always given time to talk about himself and his own strategy. This time we heard him say we shouldn't trust his smile, which gives further development that the MOR edits just don't get. We know his alliances, motivations and strategies, and if he won it would make sense for the viewer. Watch me say this and he goes out next episode. 

John was back to his episode one edit ways, with a sizable amount of visibility without a lot of complexity. John was primarily used to narrate the going-ons of Winyu, from tribe bonding to Joseph's offputting target or Hayley's gameplay. We did get a good confessional that outlined the 'mean girls' alliance which was enough to give him a CP edit, but this episode didn't make me reconsider John as a serious winner option. I think he'll comfortably make merge but beyond that I don't know where his storyline goes. One interesting tidbit from this episode was Mel saying he's smarter than he lets on, that easily could've been cut yet it was intentionally left in. Might be foreshadowing, might just be a small alliance detail. I think the swap could be a good starting point for John to build his own storylines. 

Anna is progressively sneaking up my ranks. First of all, her established duo with Hayley is a fabulous sign for her endgame prospects. I mentioned how the final 4 of last season were two previously introduced duos and how they need to be analysed cautiously as they could definitely be in it for the long haul. Anna and Hayley both have had strong edits, and my fears with Anna have subsided as time goes on - she actually successfully deflected a target on her back and managed to pull off the lie regarding her first-round vote. She is my honorary 6th winner contender currently, my only concern is if she's a swap boot in a similar way that Rose was last season (who also got a strong edit but one where people had emphasized she might be a threat). Let's hope that isn't the case. 

Nic once again has a simple yet effective episode. Remember how I mentioned Joseph didn't really get to comment on getting a vote in the previous episode? Nic was able to discuss receiving votes last time, saying both that he was scared (which shows he isn't cocky) whilst saying he had people telling him he was safe (showing that he's well-connected). Kubbadang didn't go back to tribal, and nothing complex happened on their tribe after the debrief, so Nic got the most screentime this episode he reasonably could've and it was still enough for a CP rating. In an episode with plenty of low-development characters, Nic still managed to be complex. I was extremely tempted to put Nic as my top winner contender, there's almost nothing wrong with his edit right now. He has positive SPV, he's a complex character without being overbearing, and he's set for the long-haul. My only concern is he wasn't introduced excellently, with very little connection to his job, home life or even personality beyond wanting to have fun. Perhaps he didn't give good content for those? Otherwise, Nic is shining bright right now. 

Hello again, Mar. Good to see you're still sharing complex strategy and insight every single episode. Mar once more had a prominent week, as she was able to comment on the previous vote, think ahead with Johanna's thrown vote, prepare her next target and her personal strategy - all before her sacrifice! I did get somewhat concerned about her saying Nic was 'seething' when he was evidently not, winners aren't typically shown to be wrong in such a blatant way, ignoring that though she touched on points from last episode and was able to update the audience on her next thoughts, namely targetting Mal/Johanna as a duo. Her sacrifice trip garned her another four confessionals, helping to delve into her advantage decision in a way that appeared logical and grounded (going for a steal-a-vote due to its helpfulness in a potential swap). Her chat with Conner was worth noting as well, I presume it would've been shown regardless, however it's definitely intriguing how much of Mar's edit is about being in the middle and that Conner suggested to pick one side - is she going to side with Michael like she's stated she will?  We'll find out potentially just next episode. 

Episode three is in the books! Episode four will be coming shortly so stay tuned for that. Here's this weeks charts:

If you're interested, check out the podcast episode I did for this week, featuring an interview with Joseph. Otherwise, I'll see you next week!