Survivor Canberra S2 Edgic - Episode 4

It's that time of week again! Survivor Canberra edgic. Episode 4 was published and I'm here to scrutinise the episode, finding clues about who the potential winners of the season are, along with other predictions. We once again went even shorter in this episode, just 42 minutes and we don't generally look at challenge or tribal council content, meaning there isn't a whole lot of airtime left for everyone else. Episode 4 was able to clarify some story arcs for me in a big way, let's get into it all.

Previously On Segment

The previously on segment confirmed everything I'd suspected regarding Kubbadang. Once again, we heard Mar targeting Mal/Jo, and we saw a Nic confessional. We had no flashback to Jo (who had gotten content regarding her vote towards Nic) nor Malcolm/Michael/Banfield/Sophie. Sophie got excellent content in the episode but the other four have little excuse, they're just not the primary characters. I found Winyu's review far more interesting, focusing heavily on Hayley when the vote was actually between Joseph and Simon. Simon got almost no recap, and then left later this episode. While I've said for a while Hayley is a main character, repeating John's confessional about her being a 'queen bee' is a bit strange considering that is not what we're being presented with at camp. We consistently hear that James is running the tribe, and we see it too, so why is Hayley getting narratively assigned as a leader? I'll talk about it later but I do think Hayley's winner stock went down this episode - and James getting no recap content again is another questionable sign for him.

Under The Radar

Kubbadang has a swath of low content players to get through, with a very lopsided edit on their side this time. Let's start with Banfield, who got one confessional this episode with no development. Quite literally his only spoken words from it were: 'Um, I think we're just trying to win challenges at this point, no one wants to take the- the reigns more or less at this next vote, so we'll see how we go'. At this point it's relatively clear the editors like giving at least one confessional to every player regardless of their involvement to the episode so this confessional was the equivalent of a participation trophy. Now, he did actually get some SPV despite this, and unlike usual it was not about targeting him next vote, instead it was about Malcolm keeping Banfield as a back-up option. Unfortunately for Banfield I don't give much credit to this because it was very brief and let into Malcolm's blunder of forgetting his own alliance members name - that was the focus instead of any potential new Malcolm/Banfield duo. My thoughts on Banfield are the same, I think he'll be a target quite soon and at this point I'd be stunned if he wins with this edit. I can officially confirm the editors do not have his back. 

I was starting to really get behind Johanna's edit last round but she then received a Michael-tier edit this episode. She had no noteworthy screentime during the Kubbadang tribe segments, to the point I actually thought she had no confessionals and was prepared to give out my first invisible rating of the season. Alas, she did receive one confessional after the challenge was done just sharing excitement for the win. Her story arc is more clear than Michael, Banfield and even Malcolm to an extent but this would've been the perfect opportunity to build her up more if she's going all the way to the finale. Mar's target on her has to account to something, it's received a proportionally large amount of the screentime for Kubbadang and I'm sure there's other targets they could be focussing on instead. We don't know who Johanna individually is targeting next either, nor do we have an update on her relationships. While it hurts to say, I do suspect she'll be out in the next four or so boots, as I think there's just too many characters who have more long-term arcs than she does at the moment.  

What are you doing here, Nic? Yeah, somehow even Nic got an UTR rating this episode, that's how lopsided the Kubbadang group was this time. Nic's only confessional this episode was weirdly during the challenge set-up, which is not common at all. His confessional was actually not bad at all, saying that he trained for tough challenges by running in the rain and without sleep. This fits into his larger theme of doing anything required to win the season, so it's a much better sole confessional than Johanna or Banfield. I contemplated MOR, I sided against it because he really could've gotten a confessional anytime during the strategy section and instead got zilch, but this isn't a big loss to his winner chances in my eyes. In fact, due to Hayley falling down he's actually risen up slightly - albeit still second fiddle to Mar. Nic winning still makes sense, and I strongly assume he's at or near the finale. 

Middle of the Road

This episode didn't have a lot on tone overall, most people got pretty standard edgic ratings. That isn't the case for Malcolm, who was thrown far under the bus this episode. Mar has been shown being after him since the start but it's becoming increasingly clear that we're meant to support and agree with Mar's decision-making. We even get a flashback to the previous episode where Mal said Mar picked Simon, as though it was evidence that Mal was in fact not helping Mar. While I don't necessarily believe Malcolm is actually against Mar, the edit isn't highlighting that and instead we received the glorious confessional where it takes Malcolm eleven seconds to remember Mar's name. This warranted N tone here, not malicious but moreso 'clueless' negative tone, the type that Simon used to get. Otherwise, he had the small moment with Banfield which is an interesting flip from what we've previously heard from Malcolm. We know the core 4, his connection to Jo and a new connection to Banfield which is more than others, but I can't shake the feeling that Malcolm would be a much more complex character if he ultimately won. Why let Mar tell his story for him? I now am back to believing Malcolm will be here for a while, maybe even finale, just not quite winner. 

I was stunned on rewatch to realise John had only one confessional. Just one! He felt much more present in this episode than his confessional count will tell you, I gave him MOR for his justification as to why Hayley is a threat despite saving her. John is becoming a prominent strategic force on Winyu, consistently shown in group chats directing plans on who should go home and how. The issue for John is, we see him but we don't hear about him. We get very little SPV about John, everyone else on the tribe is commented on by others constantly, even including this episode where we heard about Simon, Hayley, James, Anna and even Amy. Why no mention of John? When it comes to good edits you want a beautiful balance between personal story and strategy. Players like Johanna or Banfield aren't likely winners because they aren't shown in strategy often enough, whereas John has enough strategy but not enough personal story. Anna and James both had confessionals with audio problems, and both still received more confessionals than John when he seemingly had the strongest hand in the decision to eliminate Simon. Simon was John's initial target too, why didn't we get a follow-up? The answer is that John's story isn't important right now. I don't forsee him winning, but if he doesn't win where can he go from here? Early merge would make sense, potentially mid-merge, I think at this point I'm ready to say he won't make finale though. 

I put Anna right next to John as the two are in very similar positions. Both are right in that middle pack, not quite with the top 6 winner contenders, but not with the bottom edits like Banfield or Michael. They have storylines and potential to go deep into the game, I'm just skeptical they are main characters. Anna has more potential, as her connections with James and Hayley are being repeatedly confirmed and brought up even when not directly relevant to the overarching story. Her confessional explaining her vote was extremely important - I've mentioned before how low-tier characters don't get to explain their votes or comment on last tribal, and Anna now has been given the opportunity too even with audio complications. Her second confessional was very surface level, which I suspect is the result of more audio issues so I don't hold it against her too much. While Anna has better overall content than John, I see a similar ending for her too. Early to mid merge would make a lot of sense for her comparably 'mid' edit, but I could see her sneaking a little bit further into the game than John. 

While Michael finally got out of the UTR hole, this episode is probably his worst so far. It's becoming a little comical how little he's shown in comparison to others on his tribe, and his advantage win is the biggest example of this. We had an insane amount of Sophie confessionals before the reveal, seemingly hinting she'd win it, but then Michael won it without any prior confessionals. His two confessionals were enough to get a light MOR, as he was able to explain he didn't want to tell others about the bequeathing aspect of his advantage and that he didn't believe he was a target. However he then once again vanished from the edit, and didn't even receive proper SPV regarding his advantage win. I've said for a while his story probably doesn't begin yet, but at this point it's time to wonder if he does have a story. All we really know about him is his connection to Banfield (that Michael doesn't get to talk about) and a very loose connection to Mar that isn't followed up on consistently. While he was somewhat right in saying no one is targeting him (unless you look back to Sophie's episode 2 confessional), he also is irrelevant to the Kubbadang narrative as a whole. I don't believe Michael is bad at giving confessionals, he seems like a perfect competent narrator, so I just presume his content isn't necessary right now. Hopefully if there's a swap or merge soon he'll then break out as a character, I'm currently ready to rule him out as a viable winner candidate though. 

Mel has been slipping little by little each week, to the point she was unfortunately pushed out of my winner contenders by Sophie. Mel's story this episode was definitely middle of the road, with 5 confessionals, however none of which were very personal. In particular, she had a confessional similar to Malcolm's where she didn't remember a players name correctly, but if you actually listen to the background you can hear the music has been changed to 'do-do' music as if to make fun of Mel for not knowing another players name. Usually when a winner is blindsided you'd downplay their role in being blindsided, an excellent example is Rose was cut far too early last season, Jeremy got a confessional where he got to explain his decision not to throw a vote on Rose to guarantee safety for himself. Here? Mel got no such freedom as it was clear she was being directly excluded from the true plan. The most worrying part is the final thing we hear from her is her needing to get on the same page as everyone else, which blatantly didn't happen. Why keep that in? I don't think Mel is out of the picture completely, I just fear her complexity was related more to her sacrifice consequence then building her own personal story. Even near the end, Simon talks to her about her sacrifice and in his final words blames Mel due to that conversation. She needs more content from outside her advantage collection to build her story to the next level. 

Over The Top

I'll admit it - when watching I was a little nervous Hayley would leave. How embarrassing would it be to lose my top winner contender!? Thankfully my intuitions were correct and Hayley had a path to most likely the merge whilst Simon's path was ending. I was torn between OTT and CP for Hayley, she shared a lot of strategy and was definitely given a well-rounded edit but I think the overall intent was to portray Hayley as an ultimate underdog and inspirational figure, definitely more towards the Over-The-Top side (while definitely positive). The piano line at the opening Winyu segment definitely signalled this, slow pianos are a typical audio cue to feel despair or sympathy. Despite the barrage of positively, I actually pushed Hayley down two places as a winner option. My love for her edit was due to how sneakily good it was - how she was portrayed so positively without it being a focus. Now, it's clear as day and her winning would be a little straight-forward, I think it's increasingly likely she is a motivational boot late into the game due to her jury threat. She could rise up again if she goes more under the radar in the coming episodes, she's a little too overexposed and positive for me to really back her fully like I have been. Still, one of the strongest edits without question and it would still be a well explained narrative for her to win.  

Complex Personalities

I was tempted to put 'Orca' as his name in that graphic instead of James. James' edit has been one of the more fun and unique ones since the very beginning, with a lot of charm and villainy as opposed to the pleasantries most players provide. My question with James' is how much of his edit is just him rather than the editors focusing on his leadership. There's no question James as a person is leaning into a villainous persona, which is reflected in his edit, but how would you edit James differently if he won and didn't get a big villain downfall? I don't know the answer yet, which is why James remains a winner contender even if I have some concerns. Here's the aspects that are good - he is shown to be correct often. He called Joseph leaving, he called Simon leaving, he is a reliable (whilst cocky) narrator that the audience can trust to direct how the game is going. The bad is that he's primarily displayed as a top dog and somewhat unrelatable. While arguably Mar and Sophie are also top dogs on their tribe, we see their gameplay as though they are playing from the bottom or at least the middle, while for James he seems like a prime 7th place shock blindside candidate- maybe even by Hayley who he's underestimating? He'll probably stay in my top 5 unless he leaves, so I guess we'll wait it out if James can truly win with an iron fist. 

What a shock, Mar got another complex episode. Are we surprised at this point? If she dares get a MOR ranking then her confessional footage was probably hacked or stolen. Anyway, another fabulous episode for Mar and one that finally cemented her in my #1 winner spot. I had my reservations for the last three posts, worried she could be running towards a downfall or that her content would dwindle but it simply hasn't. Any fears from her episode one target have well and truly subsided, we hear nothing but good things about Mar and we see nothing but smart strategy from her. While she does have the most screentime from Kubbadang that doesn't mean she's automatically the best contender, Simon had a lot of content on Winyu and we can see where that got him. Mar's content is intentional and consistent, two typical signs of a fleshed-out character that is usually reserved for winners or decoy winners. For this episode specifically, it quelled my fears that Mar's target on Malcolm was seeming unfounded. After all, we saw no visual signs before this episode that Malcom wasn't on board with Mar and so it could've been a narrative where Mar is the one recklessly overplaying. Instead, we got two seperate moments justifying Mar's thought process, a flashback to the previous episode and Malcolm's own confessional where he can't remember her name. I don't think she'll be able to take out Malcolm yet, this feels like a long-term arc such as Kegan's consistent target from last season, but I'm reasonably confident she will win the battles on the way there, such as taking out Johanna. I expect to see Mar in the final 6 minimum, and she's my top contender to win it all now. 

I'm 3 for 3! As soon as Simon starting getting long, drawn out confessionals about gameplay I suspected he was the one leaving. While I was worried for Hayley I had to trust my judgment that Simon was a short-term story arc, and even said so last week that he was a likely boot option. All the other five on his tribe had options for the future, but Simon's edit was disconnected from the others and really didn't make much sense in a merge scenario. This episode he did get several confessionals about his thought process and his strategy without going into N tone like his last ones had. He also received a confessional early on foreshadowing his downfall, as he stated 'if you're gonna talk about somebody, you need to make sure you pull the trigger', which he was unable to do when it came to Hayley (or James who'd he spoken about previously). He also said the classic Survivor death sentence 'I feel pretty comfortable in that regard', which was his last confessional before being promptly voted out. Simon ends the season with MORN overall, as he was shown to be clueless and out of the loop but was able to explain himself occasionally. I think he'll be remembered for his 'young girls, old bloke' alliance and his lack of game awareness, along with his more humorous moments. 

We've hit a pattern with Sophie, every second episode she gets a big uptick in confessionals and complexity. I thought this was a phenomenal breakthrough for her, and shot her right into my top 5 winner options. For starters, on the shortest episode of the season she broke the record for most confs in an episode with 12 - an insane amount that really made this episode her story despite not going to tribal council. My fears about her as a winner option was her quiet premiere, and her 5 stated goals before the season. Winners usually have strong visibility in premieres while Sophie was almost under the radar, and her goals didn't include the ultimate goal of winning. Both of these are lessened now, Sophie got solid screentime in episode 2 and here, and she's now successfully achieving those goals without any sign of her story wrapping up because of it. Perhaps she's a slow-burn winners edit, one where we start quiet before building into a dynamic and multi-faceted character? Or maybe she's just a distraction. Time will tell, but it's clear Sophie needs to be focused on more in these coming weeks.  

Another edgic complete! Thanks for tuning in, I appreciate you all. Here's this weeks graphs:

Shoutout to the women, getting the top FIVE confessional spots. US Survivor could never! Anyway, I'll see you all next week, don't forget to check out the Backbenchers podcast if you're eager for more Survivor Canberra content. Bye for now!