Survivor Canberra S2 Edgic - Episode 5

 Hello to all! Welcome back to another edgic reading of Survivor Canberra season 2. We had a massive episode 5 to cover, with two tribals, two eliminations, 74 minutes of content and the final pre-merge round before we go to merge. Next episode will probably be more important in terms who exactly the winner is (merge episodes are usually strong indicators on who the most important characters are) but this episode gave screentime to virtually every player - which allows us to get a good recap on what their story is until this point and what it may be afterwards.

Previously On Segment

The previously on Segment was fairly straightforward. Only three things of note stood out to me- the first was calling Michaels advantage a 'lucked out' win. While technically true, it gave all the agency away from Michael as though he didn't even deserve it, in comparison to hearing that Sophie 'scored an idol'. The second was repeating that Michael can bequeath the advantage to another player - last episode he was shown saying he wouldn't tell others about that part but later in this episode it seemed people knew anyone. Both of these just highlight how murky Michaels edit is, and we'll get into him in-depth later on. The final point was giving the credit of saving Hayley over Simon to Anna. James and John both were shown to be on board and willing to make the same move, and arguably contributed just as much, so why only focus on Anna? It could've been simple foreshadowing for this episode, but I find it odd Anna was the only one named.

Middle of the Road

Once again Johanna is an enigma. She received votes, she was in danger, and this edit seemed to be a fairly mixed bag for her. On the less positive side, Jo was disconnected once again from strategy. I theorised early on her story arc could be her learning strategy as the season progresses and then blooming later on but that ship has sailed - her first confessional was about the food rewards with a flashback to her screeching at the previous Kubbadang win. Her third one almost seemed dismissive of the idea of a double tribal council where both tribes vote someone out, as though it was unfair. It all suggests Johanna isn't 'thinking about the game', or at least not to the level everyone else is. However, I see some positives too. Johanna has somewhat become a beacon of morality, wanting to avoid hurt feelings and consistently avoiding targeting others for negative reasons. She was able to explain her reason for Banfield being an option, with video proof backing him shivering. I went for MOR over CP even though it was close, mainly because we didn't hear much about Johanna's own strategies beyond her plan to nudge Michael into helping her with the Legacy Idol. There's also not a lot of connections from her with other players which is a significant problem for her long-term, the same issue with every eliminated player thus far aside from Hayley. I do expect her to leave soon, but she could still be a positive presence on the season. MOR4 5 confs

We had a lot of CP edits this round, so for John to receive only a MOR is a scary sign. Admittedly it was close between CP and MOR but I found John's confessionals weren't nearly as in-depth as other players and the ideas he shared weren't very unique to his own character. At this point I'd say John is the least likely to win out of Winyu, he doesn't really have a storyline at the moment and is becoming somewhat of an afterthought. While he appears to be playing a smart and effective game, the edit isn't highlighting it at all and instead Anna and James are getting the more noteworthy content. My best guess for John is he'll be a mid-merge boot, other than that there isn't much to add with him. Hopefully he gets a more prominent merge episode. MOR3  4 confs

Over The Top

We say an unfortunate yet expected goodbye to Banfield this week. I think I've said from quite literally episode one it's unlikely Banfield was winning, and the last couple of weeks really seemed to set up Banfield leaving the game soon. Lo and behold, he is in fact out before merge and just in time was able to wrap up his story arcs too. There's a TV Trope among all media but particularly reality TV where a contestant that is going to leave will get a dramatic uptick in screentime/complexity in the episode they're booted and Banfield got precisely that. He had an emotional story regarding his grandfather complete with an out-of-game photo to signify its importance. However he was also OTT for being extremely cold, and along with people wary that he would flip was enough to give him mixed tone for the episode as a whole. Banfield overall gets MORN, he was a decent presence on the show but was consistently called untrustworthy and named as a target. If I had to guess what he'd be remembered for, it'd be his name mishaps and excellent jacket. OTTM4 5 confs

Complex Personalities

Michael got a CP edit? The world has turned upside down. Michael finally received some complexity however this episode didn't do anything to turn around his edit. The very opening scene was Sophie and Nic discussing him as a threat, a voting option and someone not in their long-term plans. Considering we've heard very little about Michael from most people, this is an ominous sign moving forward. As I said in the previously on segment, his statement from last round about not telling others it can be bequeathed was not followed up on and Malcolm gets a confessional where he says it's specifically a reason to get rid of him. The big issue with Michael's edit is a massive lack of consistency, what we see isn't what we get with him. Malcolm claims Michael is a 'powerhouse in strategy' but we simply don't see Michael strategise with others to know that's true. His confessional shortly after was the bare minimum content - saying that Jo and Banfield were targets and he didn't want votes on him. We then get to him targeting Banfield. While there may have been other reasons not shown in the edit, I can only judge based on what we saw and Michael was seemingly the turning point to send Banfield home. Truthfully, this feels like a death sentence for Michael's edit as Banfield was one of the small parts of continuity in his edit, which similar to his promise regarding bequeathing was disregarded tonight. In fact, i'd argue Michael is an excellent example of how the presented edit vs. real-life gameplay can differ. Michael appears to be in an okay spot on his tribe and potentially could go far, but his storyline doesn't let you know that and instead his content is spotty and contradictory. I think he's gone before finale, and Mar will probably get the screentime about being unable to save him that vote. CP3  4 confs

There goes my top winner contender from the start! Hayley did in fact miss out on merge by the tiniest of margins, and in retrospect her edit makes complete sense. I do stand by my praise for her premiere and subsequent episodes, she was a well-rounded and developed character with all the markings of a solid winner edit. However it turns out she was actually the pre-merge fallen angel of the season, being cut out shy of the merge despite playing the game cleverly. Unlike the last two episodes she ended on a simple CP edit, where she explained her rationale and concerns heading into the vote. Overall Hayley unquestionably received OTTP though, and it's clear she'll be remembered due to both her injury and also her untapped game potential. Let's just hope my other winner contenders do better (and I think they will). CP5 7 Confs

After a small UTR break, Nic is back to another complex episode. If it isn't already clear, the trio of Nic/Mar/Sophie is the most important alliance edgically, they are all developed characters individually on top of their alliance being well-telegraphed to the audience. However I must say, part of me is thinking Nic is the least important out of the three. We constantly hear from Mar and Sophie had excellent episodes 2, 4 & 5. Currently Nic is above Sophie on the strength of his better premiere but his content since has been a little lacklustre. He got a CP ranking between his opening conversation with Sophie and his idol grab attempt, but my concern is that he said multiple times Jo was the target when she ultimately wasn't. He could've gotten something to say it was Banfield, or at least that was a strong option, but once again Mar and Sophie got that content instead. I also presume that fake idol comes into play, I don't know why they'd show it if it didn't pay off (such as him trying to play it and failing). He is currently my #2 winner contender but if next episode isn't strong he'll start falling down. CP4 5 confs

Malcolm had yet another worrying episode, where just like Michael he had a distinct lack of consistency regarding Banfield. We're set up at the start of the episode that Malcolm wants to work with Banfield, keep him as a side option, but then without any further explanation from Malcolm he goes along with the Banfield vote (despite not outright voting him). He also spoke a noticeable amount regarding Michael, that wasn't substantiated by the edit. Especially in his Sacrifice segment, where he outright stated he would try to push Michael even though we as an audience don't know what makes Michael a threat to his game. To me, this foreshadows a Michael vs. Malcolm war down the line and with Mar keeping Michael safer than Mal, could Mal lose that battle? It's possible, but the important note is it didn't happen at all this time when Malcolm implied it would. Going into the merge, Malcolm would need to make some other connections with Winyu members for me to trust he'll make finale (and even then, I think it's too late for him to be in contention to win the whole season without a major change in edit). CP5   10 confs

At this point, Mar is without a doubt the most obvious winner contender in the game. My only concern is that she is quite genuinely too obvious and potentially just a decoy. There's not been a single episode where she's not been CP, she's had a balance of personal moments and strategic moments, has connections to everyone on her tribe and makes beautiful connecting metaphors. Undoubtedly part of this is just Mar's personality and natural narrational ability, but other quieter players like Michael are also good at narration and are barely featured. She had two stand-out moments this episode, the first was her reflection on Conner's advice when she went to Ultimate Sacrifice. That style of content is gold, it ties into the larger theme of the season while solely talking about her own personal game and decision making. On an edgic sense, this gave her continued Malcolm/Jo targeting a conclusion for now as she understands the bigger picture that playing the middle could hurt her. Her second was the final thoughts before we went to tribals, using a sail metaphor to represent her flexibility and adaptability. Underscored by inspiring music she says she's 'setting herself for victory' - and any mention of winning/victory is a typical green flag for a winners edit. My dilemma is if these are too blatant. Jeremy had a solid winners edit but not necessarily obvious, especially when Brad, Ashlee and Ben all had realistic winner edits. While I'm willing to rule out edits without complexity, I don't think I should assume Mar is the winner just based on visibility and screen presence. At this moment she remains my top option but I actually would like a small cool-down episode for her or she risks being an overexposed decoy winner.  CPP5 7 Confs

Sophie didn't follow her trend of every second episode being her strongest as for the third time she got another strategic-leaned edit. One of the major positives of Sophie's edit is how often we hear others talk about wanting to work with her, I don't believe we've ever heard someone say they want her gone (unlike Nic & Mar who have received minor moments of being a target) and just in this episode alone we heard from Nic, Mar, Malcolm and Michael about feeling close/aligned with Sophie. She was shown as one of the first to acknowledge the flip to Banfield without it being too extravagant, and got credit from him in his final words as well. Next episode is the merge one and it could be the episode Sophie needs to propel her story to the next level. Ideally she has a tie back to her personal goals from episode 1, and gets a little more backstory/motivation into specifically winning. Other than that, she continues to rise in the ranks. CP4  5 confs

Another fine episode for the so-called 'Orca'. I don't have many new thoughts on James because his edit isn't bringing up many new points for him. We've heard it from the start - he believes he's in control of his tribe and others comment on him being seen as the leader. This episode his opening confessional reiterated this but was interestingly contrasted by Anna saying 'I definitely don't think he's as in control as he thinks'. This still concerns me as James might be getting a downfall edit, if he were to flipped on by Anna, Mel and John down the line there's editorial justification. However out of the Winyu four there's also the highest chance of James winning because he does have the clearest narrative. At this point I do find it significantly more likely that one of the Kubbadang three (Nic, Mar, Sophie) are winning than any of the Winyu players. I was close to giving James MOR for this episode, he got a relatively low amount of time on screen but his content was complex enough to scrape a CP rating. He got negative tone mainly for others comments on him, saying he'd throw them under the bus and he's untrustworthy. I'll keep an eye on James in the coming weeks and if he genuinely does get a more developed edit he'll go back up in winner contention, otherwise he'll probably fall of the list soon.  CPN3 4 confs

Mel was the only player so far to come back after being blindsided by a vote so she's the test subject on how a character gets portrayed after being left out. It was acceptable, she was able to acknowledge her exclusion and express concerns regarding James. The issue for Mel is she was undermined a few times this episode. First was her getting Anna's name wrong twice more - that's now four times in total its happened. I understand showing it once or twice but it's difficult to imagine a winner getting that sort of edit unless they had a redemption later where they worked with that player. Second is her still believing Joseph voted for her. It's been clearly outlined to the audience that it was Anna, not Joseph yet we still see Mel talk about it being Joseph. Third is her being wary of James and mentioning him a lot (even before this episode) and still not voting for him. It seemed from what we saw of Mel that it would make logical sense to target James but instead she went along with the Hayley plan without a lot of explanation on her part. Despite these three I still have Mel clinging on as my #5 winner contender, she had a nice premiere and never dips too low in any individual episode. Like a couple others left, the merge episode is key for her. It's when the game shifts and new important connections are formed and if Mel creates some with Kubbadang and builds her storyline beyond James and 'Amy', she'll be in a much better position.  CP4 5 confs

Talk about a breakthrough episode! Anna got a massive episode, with a gigantic amount of confs and a very praised immunity challenge performance. Her perfomance was given plenty of positive SPV which accounted for her P tone, and she was well and truly a complex personality as she gave her takes on Simon, Mel, James, the super idol, her trust in Hayley and the future. For now Anna is an honorary #6 and the last person I think could be our winner. I don't think Michael/Johanna/Malcolm/John can win at this point without a significant direction change in their edit but Anna has potential to grow from here. The main selling point for her goes back to her first episode claim that she can come off shy but be a power strategist. The previously on for this episode gave Anna the credit for Simon's elimination - therefore is she fulfilling what she stated in the premiere? Anna didn't get her way this episode, as Mel's idol wasn't flushed and Hayley left without Anna voting her, however I do still see a path where she recovers from that. Also of note is that her idol isn't mentioned often. In contrast, Mel's super idol is constantly pointed out and mentioned but Anna's isn't. It could indicate she doesn't play it correctly, or it could suggest her story is bigger than just an advantage. I've got hopes for Anna moving through the season. CPP5   8 confs

That's a wrap on episode 5 edgic! Apologies for this being later than normal, shouldn't happen again from now on. Here's the charts:

Until next time, see y'all!