Survivor Canberra S2 Edgic - Episode 8

Welcome all to the eighth edition of Survivor Canberra edgic. We're in the thick of it now! With only two episodes after this, I'm going to have to make some tough calls here to determine who I believe can truly win and where everyone's story arcs will conclude. For this week, I've also decided to go back to the opening episode to check everyone's first confessional. I want to compare that introduction to where they are now, and then determine how their story has unfolded.

Previously On Segment

Rather than focus on individual wording, let's take a look at who got focus in this flashback section. Ignoring James, the two players with confessionals were Anna & Nic - two people I believe are key endgamers. Players like Mel and Malcolm received no recap and one of them just left this episode. Otherwise this segment mostly set up the events of this episode, with the stray Sophie vote, Johanna as a target and the women's alliance. 

Middle of the Road

At this point I think it's fair to say Michael doesn't speak a lot about himself in confessionals. From the beginning we hear from Michael but not about him, he explains what's happening but it's noticeably rare to hear what Michael plans to do. We did hear from him saying that he hates people going after challenge threats like Nic and himself, as he then agrees to vote Nic in the next shot. His first confessional is another good example: 'An advantage isn't going to get me as far as social connections and relationships will', but he ended up winning that literal advantage and using it to survive the merge vote because he didn't have the social connections. Michael has the biggest disconnect between gameplay and edit, from what we can determine he's playing one of the strongest games but what we see from him is typically vague or inconsistent. I brought up the Nic example and in this same episode he also said Jo was annoying him 'so much' and then was the swing vote to save Johanna. When the best part of his edit was justification on choosing lamingtons, we have a problem. At this point Michael is last for me, I'd be disappointed if this was the edit for a winner. I'm predicting losing finalist, maybe even third if the cards fall into place. 

Mel is a question mark for me currently. Most players I'd say have clear allegiances, motivations and goals but it's hard to determine where Mel fits into the game right now. Her first confessional was: 'Sacrifice is like, I'm already camping. That's kind of enough for me so...', which is more of a character-based entry than a strategy-based one. That's not outright bad but usually winners get good tie-ins to their strategy and personal life too early on. Her second confessional was stronger in this regard but hasn't been followed up on yet, namely her ability to predict players votes or path to the end. I didn't pick it up at the time but in the very next episode she incorrectly guessed that Joseph had voted for her, a contradiction to her claim. In this episode, Mel was pinned incorrectly for Nic's stray vote. That's a full-circle moment for her and she was able to point out that she's survived the most votes in the game. Otherwise, she didn't get a lot of content from herself episode and only received a simple MOR rating. While she was talked about quite a bit, it was mainly suspicion over the Sophie vote, not related to Mel's character. Initially I was high on Mel's edit because it felt intentional, and now I fear it may have been super idol related as she's become more of a side-character since merge. It would take a noteworthy next episode edit for me to put her back in my contender list, and I suspect she may actually be leaving in the double next time too. 

A simple episode for Anna. Nothing groundbreaking, yet we got enough from her to keep her winner chances alive and keep rolling on. Her technical 'first' confessional was about Sacrifice, her second one introduced her far better as it gave an overview for her strategy this season: 'I'm really going to try come off as likeable and sweet and maybe a little bit shy because I am naturally quite shy but I think behind my shyness I can be a strategic thinker and I can be a little bit manipulative'. This in retrospect is probably the second best intro behind Mar's and it summarises how her gameplay has been until this point. She is a shy player however she's been behind Winyu's pre-merge moves and made good new bonds with the Kubbadangs. If she made it to the end without Mar and won, her edit would make sense as she was underestimated and survived in spite of her tribe shunning her at merge. Anna might leave in episode 9, and this could all be for nought, but she very well could also be our winner. 

Over The Top

What an episode for Johanna! Not many players get tone this late into the season but Johanna had a beautiful OTTP episode where the audience was meant to sympathise with Johanna's struggle. It tied into her long-running narrative of being new to Survivor and she ended the episode on a positive note by surviving despite her target. She begun the season with 'I think I really just want to be me and if me has no filter then that's what you get. Makes for good TV, right?'. Not a phrase that has particularly played into her edit, however Johanna still has the clearest storyline out of the remaining players. It will be, and has been, the journey of her learning and adapting to the cutthroat game of Survivor and pulling it off successfully at points. Doubt she is winning, but I think she'll have a fantastic overall arc this season whenever it concludes. 

Complex Personalities

I was not prepared for a Sophie heel turn, but this episode felt unexpectedly negative in her portrayal. It wasn't major, she wasn't villainous like James but I felt like the edit highlighted how insignificant one vote is in the grand scheme of the game especially with Mel's confessional about how many she's received. Her first confessional was of note here: she went over her bucket list of 5 points she wanted to hit. She succeeded in 4/5 of them, but hasn't won a solo challenge yet which was pointed out in a teary confessional as she finished second again. In comparison to Johanna, Sophie didn't get a positive sway behind her like Johanna's music change and she then was quiet at the end of the episode. Sophie has been an off-and-on character, and this was another 'off' after three strong pre-merge episodes. Can she win? I think there's still enough there to justify a win, and she's certainly above characters like Michael, but I'm now considering her being a finale boot as more likely. If Mar, Nic or Anna wins, then Sophie could be the final boss that is taken out right before f3 as a jury threat. Time will tell!  

I've been legitimately impressed by how many predictions I've gotten right thus far. Aside from Hayley I think I've called most of the eliminations around when they happened, and Malcolm is no exception - I felt the storylines were coming together for his elimination and they indeed did. Malcolm ends on a simple CP rating, taken out for being a threat to the power alliance(s) and being a potential jury threat. Malcolm's story this season was primarily told through Mar - we heard her issues with him from very early on and this was the audience's perspective on Malcolm for a lot of the pre-merge. He got a boost in complexity at merge but it was too little too late for a winner story to begin - it's a common trend for players to get heightened content before their exit to give them a more rounded story arc. I think Malcolm will be remembered for being a light-hearted presence on the season, who was taken out in the biggest move of the season (thus far). 

Can Nic win out? That's the only question I have left for Nic. He's got a consistent and solid edit that could absolutely be the winning one if he makes it to the end. However, everything is suggesting he would leave if he wasn't immune. If he loses a challenge at any point after this I believe he will go home - likely leading to Mar or maybe Anna/Sophie winning. His first conf was 'I'm just going to be a bit wacky, I'm just going to have a bit of fun. I'm going to stir the pot, do some random things that people may love or hate. Take it or leave it.'. Convenient timing because this episode is the best example of Nic being wacky, having fun, stirring the pot and doing something random. Nic has been one of the most 'fun' characters and his lie about the Sophie vote encapsulates it perfectly. Michael, Sophie and Malcolm fell into a gamebot mode but Nic has kept the fun moments sprinkled in with his strategy content, and it's reminiscent of the season 1 winner.  

In her usual position in these posts, Mar is last of the CPs. Right from her first confessional she has been complex and episode 8 is no exception. She begun by stating 'it's something Bruce Lee said. He said be like water which means you need to be flexible. So water if it's in a bowl it becomes a bowl, if it's in a bottle it becomes a bottle'. We've seen time and time again how Mar connects with most players, has not been brought up as a target and adapts her strategy based on the other players around her. This episode she finally made the move against Malcolm, which justified the season-long emphasis on their divide. She succeeded in that goal, now it's if she can get rid of Nic before the end. Once again I battle with the issue of if it's too obvious of a winner's edit and maybe a quieter edit like Anna's could be our true winner. For now she remains #1 and I think she will comfortably survive next episode. 

Third last week done! Here's our charts:

I'll catch you all for the penultimate episode shortly!